A weblog that catalogs what's shaping the thinking at the DSB Policy Institute.

Tuesday, August 26, 2003

With Gov. Dean charging ahead on his Sleepless in Seattle tour, and on the brink of breaking Clinton's non-election year fundraising record, one is tempted to feel pity for the the rest of the pack of Dems.

But as Michael Jordan has taught, it's all about Winning Time and saving it for when it really matters. Dean's momentum is undeniable, but it must be noted that he hasn't really been hit yet with any negative spots, and being the front runner too early is often the best way to make yourself a target. The DSBPI loves a good rabble rouser, but questions whether Dean's fundraising model is sustainable: eeking out small change from the heartland while promising big change in the homeland.

Watching Dean on CSPAN.org clearly highlights that he is no Clinton. And remember, Clinton was the Comeback Kid, always rallying from defeat, while Dean has nowhere to go but down this early in the cycle - not an envious spot.

Dean is seeking to solidify his position by running ads on a national scale, an expensive proposition in a race with a dubious first mover advantage. Dean is going all in and he hasn't even seen the flop. DSBPI doesn't think he's holding aces, but is betting on a longshot inside straight. Sometimes it falls, but the odds aint good.

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