DSBPI predicts that the October surprise won't be terrorist attack, but a fed rate hike.
Greenspan screwed W's dad by not cutting rates, he will screw W but raising them.

I am working the night shift at the DSBPI monitoring center and found this email thread I thought would be good for the blog. I guess read from the bottom up. I hope the boss doesn't can me over this.
___________


late night lowercase email ahead:

great call on the scream. he should have screamed again to show that he is in control of the scream. it would have turned into the tomahawk chop of politics.
now dean is being handled like al gore after the huffing/puffing debate. lot of good that did, although i guess gore did win the election.

it is really hard for senators to win the presidency. not an executive. and so much baggage with hundreds of votes to dissect. edwards seems like such a lightweight. but i guess so did w.

clark just looks insane. and why does he have those huge shoulder pads in all of his suits? is kerry the only man who knows how to get a suit custom made? i know dean is happy about his filene's basement look, but he is running for president of the us, not president of the 92nd st. Y. strike that, pres of 92nd street Y is probably some hedgefunder who has suits measured while shorting treasuries.

lieberman. nebuch. the guy is just not made for the primaries. his post NH speech "this is not a campaign, this is a cause" basically summed it up. and the shame is i agree with the guy all over the place.

also, to me it seems like the "electabilty" issue is a bit of a tautology. i won't vote for someone because they are not electable, but they are not electable because i won't vote for them.

dsb out

-----Original Message-----
From: B, Allan
Sent: Wednesday, January 28, 2004 21:40
To: 'Eitan L'; B, Daniel
Subject: RE:

Frankly, I'm puzzled by Kerry's wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. What did those voters see in him? Just the anti-Dean?

John Edward's ascendancy is remarkable. He won't be president this time around, but apparently he has the mojo. Clark never materialized. Lieberman is out of step with the party.

Did any of you see Dean's speech after New Hampshire? You could see that he was intentionally restraining himself. Trying to be toned down. I think he could have co-opted the scream and made it his trademark. Instead he desperately trying to be boring.

-----Original Message-----
From: Eitan L
Sent: Tuesday, January 27, 2004 10:01 PM
To: 'B, Daniel'; 'B, Allan'
Subject:


So let's talk Kerry...does he have the 'mo to take it all? The personality?

Just listened to him speak - not bad...not a huge fan of his war voting record though...he voted against '91 war, for this war and against the $87b package...I would have done the opposite: voted for '91 (relatively morally straightforward, despite Michael Moore's assertion that it was a war to reinstate a dictator, and essential for national security), voted against this war (his shtick about "I voted for the threat of force" seems a bit farfetched though I do have sympathy for the "Bush deceived us" argument) and I'd have voted for the $87b (not happy about it but we're there and now we need to stick it out).

Speaking of Bush, how come no one's harping on this whole Nigerian yellowcake business? Personally, I think that might be a borderline impeachable offense since he basically lied (certainly as much as Clinton ever did - playing fast and loose with the truth is that same as a lie for practical purposes)...do you think it's going to come back up over the course of the campaign?

DSBPI has been saying all along (see archives) that Dean was not in control of his campaign and that it was functioning like an Internet startup before the crash. Now Dean has brought in a new CEO to try and turn his Netscape into a Microsoft.

Joe Trippi, the man who built the technology that launched the Dean nation has been canned in favor of someone the AP characterizes as "the ultimate Washington insider": Roy Neel, a former lobbyist with Gore ties. Suffice to say Al has fingerprints all over this one.

This is a great move for Dean, even if he will suffer blowback from the Internet hordes.

Front page of New York Sun today, a picture of Dean wearing a kafiyah around his neck. Consistent with DSBPI early thinking (see archives), Dean is imploding.

Quick Iowa takes:

1. Dean is insane
2. Gephart is a mensch
3. Ted Kennedy has lost his marbles
4. Kerry is using botox

DSBPI wonders if the falling dollar, which has caused an upward repricing of globaly traded dollar-based assets (see: gold) is also impacting New York City real estate -- drawing Euro-earners to this globally-traded asset class.

I think that this "Dean is an Angry man" thing is an echo of the "Al Gore exaggerates" thing. A filter that the media has set up through which to view the candidate.

DSBPI believes that with the advances in data mining technology, concurrent with the mass amounts of individual data now collected and stored, the consequent achievements in customer segmentation and customization will engender a truly perfect product for each individual. That the day of tradeoffs in purchasing decisions will wane and you will find yourself making fewer tough spending choices; the correct product for each moment will rise above the others like the phoenix.

You will choose the mini-Ipod silver, he will take the Saab 9-3 Aero in Black Pearl, she will have the Grande Chai Latte and it will all be ... obvious.

DSBPI notes that those in their mid-twenties and late twenties largely missed out on the stock market boom and bust of the late '90s and have also largely missed out on the residential real estate boom of the late '90s that continues to this day.

We wonder for how long real estate asset prices can sustain? Surely another 50% to 100% rise (as we've seen since '96 in large cities) cannot repeat over the next five years? Or will it? Will the younger generation be spending a larger percentage of earnings on mortgage payments than ever before?